Ten years after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, new analysis suggests the country has struggled to translate Brexit into economic gains. In the June 2016 referendum, 51.89% of voters backed leaving the EU while 48.11% voted to remain, setting in motion a multi-year process that culminated in the UK’s formal withdrawal in December 2020.
Economist Ray Perryman, president and CEO of The Perryman Group, has reviewed outcomes in his column “Brexit—10 Years Later” and concludes that the decision has significantly undermined the UK’s economic performance. He states that available data “clearly indicates that Brexit has indeed severely harmed the UK economy,” pointing to measurable declines in growth, investment and labor-market outcomes.
Perryman notes that support for leaving the EU in 2016 grew out of several themes. Advocates emphasized regaining national control, reducing immigration and shedding what they saw as excessive EU bureaucracy. They argued that departing the bloc would save billions of pounds in membership contributions and allow the UK to strike more advantageous trade deals on its own.
High-profile political figures amplified the Leave campaign. Boris Johnson, then mayor of London, and Michael Gove, then justice secretary, were among the most prominent backers. Other dynamics also played a role, including distrust of then–Prime Minister David Cameron, who supported remaining in the EU, and the inability of the Labour Party to build strong connections with key voter groups. Research at the time found that support for Brexit was particularly strong among voters aged 55 and older, who turned out heavily.
A decade later, public sentiment appears to have shifted. Statista reports that a June 2026 YouGov poll found 57% of surveyed UK citizens believed the country should not have left the EU. A separate YouGov survey from July 2025, cited by Statista, indicated that most respondents viewed Brexit as having a mainly negative effect, especially on the cost of living and the broader economy.
Perryman backs up those perceptions with findings from a study by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. That work estimates that Brexit reduced the UK’s gross domestic product by 6% to 8% and pushed investment down by 12% to 18%. Employment and productivity are each reported to have fallen by 3% to 4% over the period examined.
While acknowledging that the pandemic, energy-market disruptions and domestic fiscal choices have all weighed on performance, Perryman maintains that leaving the EU is itself a major, quantifiable drag. He points to the uncertainty and operational frictions triggered by the shift in the UK’s trading and regulatory relationships as key drivers of weaker outcomes.
In closing, Perryman situates Brexit within a broader context of global economic headwinds, including geopolitical tensions and demographic change. He argues that EU membership was not a perfect arrangement for the UK, but that restricting trade and the cross-border movement of capital and labor has added avoidable challenges. In his view, those choices are likely to carry long-term consequences for the country’s growth trajectory.
