Refinancing challenges in the commercial mortgage-backed securities market have pivoted away from office and toward multifamily and hospitality in October, according to new data from Trepp. The shift is being driven by two large single-asset single-borrower loans that are deeply troubled, each posting a debt yield below 6.0%. One finances a national multifamily portfolio and the other is tied to a resort in Honolulu. Together, these two loans make up 66.79% of all severely impaired CMBS balances currently facing hard maturities.
This represents a marked change from September, when retail loans held the largest share of severely impaired CMBS exposure. Even so, office remains the leading property type by share of October hard maturities, accounting for 27.03% of the total. Retail follows at 22.6%, while multifamily now represents 18.66%, underscoring that refinancing pressure is broadening beyond the office sector.
Across the 2026 calendar year, Trepp reports that CMBS hard maturities reach $76.6 billion, surpassing the volumes seen in each of the prior two years. The timing of those maturities is skewed toward the end of the year, with 39% of the outstanding loan balances scheduled to come due in the fourth quarter. This back-loaded profile highlights a growing maturity wall that will test borrowers’ ability to refinance in the current capital markets environment.
Special servicing activity is elevated as loans approach their hard maturity dates. Trepp notes that 19.44% of the relevant loan cohort balance is already in special servicing ahead of maturity. Unlike September, when office loans made up 74.94% of the special-servicing balance, the October data show distress more evenly distributed across several property types.
In the latest readings, office represents 29.71% of all CMBS balances in special servicing, while retail closely follows at 29.23%. Multifamily accounts for 22.96% of the special-servicing total, reflecting the impact of the severely impaired national multifamily portfolio highlighted by Trepp. These shifts suggest that refinancing stress is no longer as concentrated in office as it was earlier in the cycle, and that multifamily and hospitality assets with weaker cash flows are emerging as key pressure points within CMBS pools.
For market participants, the combination of a larger 2026 maturity pipeline, the heavy fourth-quarter concentration, and the rising share of multifamily and hospitality loans in distress underscores the importance of closely monitoring debt yields, refinancing prospects, and special-servicing trends across sectors.
