U.S. consumers are planning to spend more this holiday season, but the additional dollars are largely bypassing gift boxes in favor of experiences and celebrations. JLL’s 2026 holiday shopping survey reports that shoppers expect to spend an average of $1,243, a 9.7% increase from last year. Despite this overall rise, gift budgets are growing more modestly, with spending on presents up 3.1% year-over-year and now accounting for 48.1% of the total holiday budget.
The report characterizes the upcoming season as a return to fuller celebrations after a period of restraint in 2025, highlighting that shoppers are prioritizing food, decor, and shared activities. Spending on food and decorations is projected to climb 16%, while budgets for entertainment and dining out are set to increase by 17.3%. JLL frames these shifts as evidence that consumers are seeking “delicious food, festive decor and fun holiday experiences” even as they refine who makes the gift list.
The survey also refines previous guidance for retail centers on how to influence shopper spending. In 2025, the message was straightforward: keep shoppers on site longer and total spend would rise. This year, JLL notes that there appears to be an optimal visit length rather than a simple “longer is better” rule. Planned spending peaks at $1,594 among shoppers who expect to stay 60 to 75 minutes. For those anticipating visits longer than 90 minutes, expected outlay drops to $1,217.
Instead of dwell time alone, the breadth of a shopping trip is emerging as a critical driver of spend. Shoppers who plan to visit just one or two retail categories budget about $570, while those intending to hit seven or more categories expect to spend just over $2,000. JLL suggests that stretching a visit relies on amenities such as seating, music, and coffee, while widening a visit depends on cross-category offers, clear directories, and signage that directs customers to stores they had not initially planned to visit.
Foot traffic intentions lean more favorably toward brick-and-mortar formats this year. The share of shoppers planning a mall visit has risen to 55.3%, up from 49.9% in 2025. Online delivery remains the dominant channel but has slipped to 80% of shoppers from 83.9% a year earlier. Food and beverage spending within shopping trips is also gaining traction: 20.8% of shoppers say they plan to buy something to eat or drink on each trip, up from 12.2% in 2025.
Traditional holiday shopping events are seeing mixed momentum. Planned in-store shopping on Black Friday stands at 39.8%, with 55.1% planning to shop online that day. Cyber Monday participation has declined, with 46.9% of shoppers planning to take part, down from 55.2% previously. At the same time, in-store shopping on Thanksgiving Day has increased to 31.8% from 25.8%, a shift JLL attributes to households earning more than $150,000.
Inflation remains a key constraint on how far larger budgets will stretch. JLL notes that 71.6% of shoppers say rising prices will affect their holiday spending plans, and more consumers are narrowing their gift lists. The share of shoppers who say they are buying presents for fewer people has risen to 28.9% from 24.9%. Last season, many consumers kept their list length intact but traded down on the value of individual gifts. This year, JLL finds more shoppers are removing recipients altogether, which the report warns is more costly for retailers because a dropped name represents a lost sale rather than a smaller one.
