Amherst CEO Sean Dobson used a recent Walker Webcast to outline why he is cautious on the current housing market while rejecting parallels to the depths of the Great Financial Crisis. Speaking with Walker & Dunlop chairman and CEO Willy Walker during the 2026 Zelman Housing Summit in Boston on September 17, Dobson focused on Federal Reserve policy, the structure of the U.S. mortgage market and Amherst’s long-term commitment to single-family rentals.
Dobson argued that the Federal Reserve has repeatedly reacted late to changing economic conditions. He said the central bank kept interest rates too low before and after the Great Financial Crisis and then responded to the COVID-19 shock with what he characterized as excessive monetary and fiscal stimulus. In his view, current rate hikes are addressing inflationary pressures that originated years earlier, with housing bearing much of the impact from both monetary and fiscal missteps.
That policy backdrop has raised the cost of capital across the economy. Dobson estimated that America’s cost of capital has increased by roughly 100 to 150 basis points, calling that move significant for housing finance. However, he stressed that this cycle lacks the defining trigger of 2008. Then, millions of homes were financed with adjustable-rate and payment-option mortgages that reset to unaffordable levels, flooding the market with distressed supply and pushing prices down sharply.
By contrast, Dobson said today’s challenge is reduced affordability and limited tradable inventory, rather than an impending wave of forced sales. Many households earning about $80,000 a year cannot qualify for mortgages large enough to purchase bigger homes. At the same time, millions of existing owners are locked into low-rate mortgages and are reluctant to sell, shrinking the “float” of homes actually available for transaction relative to the broader housing stock.
Dobson also criticized the mortgage market for being misaligned with contemporary household structures. He noted that a large share of families who want to own do not fit the traditional mold once epitomized by the fictional Cleaver family. Households may include unmarried partners, blended families, roommates or single parents, but underwriting standards and government support programs still largely cater to traditional buyers and expect them to concentrate wealth in a single leveraged asset tied to one location.
He said elected officials have shown limited interest in the needs of renting families, even though the government backs the vast majority of U.S. mortgages. While grants and guarantees support about 98% of mortgage loans, Dobson said similar financing tools are not available for the renter households Amherst serves, leaving them largely outside the mainstream of housing policy.
This disconnect is part of the rationale for Amherst’s focus on single-family rentals. Entering the sector in 2011, the firm targeted renters who were shut out of ownership by tighter post-crisis underwriting, aiming to operate single-family homes with the discipline of commercial real estate. The goal was to create a durable rental segment positioned between conventional apartments and owner-occupied houses. Despite what Dobson described as operating performance comparable to leading multifamily platforms, he said the sector has been constrained by higher capital costs, the shock of COVID-19 and subsequent interest rate spikes.
Dobson sees single-family rentals ultimately becoming a stable component of the housing ecosystem, but he flagged macro risks that could pressure financial assets more broadly. He cited the possibility of stagflation driven by rising oil prices, elevated interest rates and weakening incomes, especially if the Fed continues to respond to past inflation rather than current conditions. Amherst currently assigns about a 12% probability to a stagflation or recession scenario, a level Dobson described as low but worth monitoring if it increases.
