**Walker Webcast Recap: Tariffs, Markets, Economics and CRE with Peter Linneman**
The April 16 episode of the Walker Webcast, titled “The Most Insightful Hour in CRE, Part 21,” featured renowned economist Dr. Peter Linneman alongside Walker & Dunlop Chairman and CEO Willy Walker. Broadcast live from the YPO Multifamily Symposium in Chicago, the highly anticipated session drew more than 14,000 registrations.
**Tariffs Take Center Stage**
The webcast opened with a discussion around newly announced tariffs, which came as a surprise to many in the market. Both Walker and Linneman emphasized the disruptive nature of the unexpected scale — jumping from a projected 3% to as high as 10%. “No one can figure out what’s going on, meaning the risk premium goes way up,” said Linneman, highlighting the uncertainty fraught within the current trade climate.
According to Linneman, these tariffs essentially act as taxes impacting about 10% of the U.S. economy. The weighted average effect is similar to a $20 tax on every $100 of imports, potentially slicing 1.7% off of the national GDP — a significant blow given that typical annual growth ranges from 2.3% to 2.5%. He did note, however, that the inflationary shock from tariffs would be a one-time event unless further increases follow.
**Commercial Real Estate Insights**
Turning attention to commercial real estate, Linneman addressed the multifamily sector first. He described 2024 as a “balanced market,” noting that despite historically high levels of new multifamily housing delivery, absorption kept pace. Looking ahead, he forecasted that beginning in 2026, a lack of single-family housing supply and rising ownership costs will keep more people in rentals longer.
“Increased costs make homeownership less accessible,” he said. “People will stay in multifamily longer in order to save more, often putting down larger down payments to reduce overall homeownership costs.”
Linneman expressed continued optimism about the multifamily outlook given the persistent shortage of single-family housing. “People have to live somewhere,” he asserted, reinforcing long-term fundamentals.
As for retail, he remained positive: “I like retail located wherever people want to shop.” While supportive of retail growth, he cautioned that the full economic impact of tariffs needs to be closely monitored.
In discussing the struggling office sector, Linneman shared data from The Linneman Letter, revealing that 17 of 44 U.S. office markets are showing gradual improvement. “Rent and occupancy are improving, albeit slowly,” he noted. While institutional investors are cautiously reentering the office space, uncertainty still looms.
**Strategic Advice for CRE Stakeholders**
Linneman concluded by offering practical advice to the YPO attendees and webcast viewers. His key message: buy based on sound fundamentals rather than market noise.
“Unless you’re looking to flip, go in and buy — but be prepared if things go wrong. Keep your leverage low,” he advised. He further encouraged investors to “tune down the noise” and focus on the big picture, noting that employment remains strong and that inflation shows signs of moderation.
On-demand replays of the April 16 Walker Webcast are available through Walker Webcast’s channels on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts. New episodes are released weekly, featuring insights from some of the most influential voices in commercial real estate.
