**Walker Webcast Recap: Tariffs, Markets, Economics, and Commercial Real Estate with Peter Linneman**
The April 16 edition of the Walker Webcast, titled “The Most Insightful Hour in CRE, Part 21,” featured renowned economist Dr. Peter Linneman, joined by Walker & Dunlop Chairman and CEO Willy Walker. This special episode was broadcast live from the YPO Multifamily Symposium in Chicago and attracted more than 14,000 registrants.
**Tariffs and Economic Uncertainty**
The discussion kicked off with an analysis of recently announced tariffs, which both Linneman and Walker agreed took the markets—and the public—by surprise. The size of the tariff increases was significantly higher than expected, jumping from a projected 3% to 10%.
This level of unpredictability, Linneman noted, creates risk in the market. “No one can figure out what’s going on, meaning the risk premium goes way up,” he said.
Linneman explained that tariffs, which he describes as a form of taxation, are now impacting approximately 10% of the economy. This could result in a reduction of GDP by up to 1.7%. “In a normal year, we grow 2.3% to 2.5%,” Linneman said. “With this, you’re wiping out three-fourths of a normal year’s growth.”
However, he offered a silver lining: the inflationary shock caused by these tariffs would likely be a one-time event—unless future tariffs are introduced. “There’s a one-time shock to inflation in excess of one percentage point,” he explained.
**Commercial Real Estate Insights**
Turning to commercial real estate, Linneman examined the multifamily and single-family housing sectors. “In 2024, multifamily was a balanced market,” he said. “We had historic deliveries, and all of it was absorbed.”
Yet, starting in 2026, balance may again shift as housing affordability continues to challenge homeownership. Rising ownership costs mean more people will remain in the rental market. “They’ll work to build up a bigger equity cushion,” Linneman said. “Instead of putting 10% down on a home, they’ll put 20% and help bring the costs down.”
Overall, Linneman remains bullish on multifamily housing. “People have to live somewhere, and we still have a massive shortage of single-family homes that’s not going away,” he stated.
He also expressed confidence in the retail sector, provided it is well located. “I like retail located wherever people want to shop,” he noted. He added that while economic growth is expected, the true impact of tariffs remains to be seen.
On the office sector, Linneman cited insights from his publication, The Linneman Letter, reporting gradual improvements in 17 of the 44 markets analyzed. “Rent and occupancy are improving really slowly, and they’re improving really slowly in the capital market sense,” he said. Institutional investors are beginning to re-enter the office market, though uncertainty still lingers.
**Advice for Investors**
Linneman advised viewers and YPO attendees to stay grounded in fundamentals and avoid reacting to media-driven fear. “Unless you’re looking to flip, go in and buy, but be prepared if things go wrong,” he said, emphasizing the importance of maintaining lower leverage.
“Leave the fright house and tune down the noise,” he added. “Employment was pretty strong in the first quarter. Unemployment claims were very solid, and inflation is down.”
**Watch the Webcast**
On-demand replays of the April 16 Walker Webcast are available through Walker & Dunlop’s channels on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts. Subscribe to receive invitations, replays, and related content for upcoming episodes.
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This article is a recap of insights from the Walker Webcast featuring Peter Linneman and Willy Walker.
