**Walker Webcast: Tariffs, Markets, Economics and CRE with Peter Linneman**
The April 16 edition of the Walker Webcast featured the 21st installment of “The Most Insightful Hour in CRE,” with renowned economist Dr. Peter Linneman joining host Willy Walker, Chairman and CEO of Walker & Dunlop. The live broadcast aired from the YPO Multifamily Symposium in Chicago and garnered over 14,000 registrations, underscoring the episode’s relevance and popularity.
**A Deep Dive into Tariffs and Market Uncertainty**
The discussion opened with a spotlight on tariffs, where both Linneman and Walker expressed concern about the surprise magnitude of recently announced tariff increases. Linneman pointed out that the unpredictability surrounding these decisions adds significant risk to markets.
“The announced tariff hikes were much larger than expected—jumping from an assumed 3% to a striking 10%,” Linneman said. “This translates to roughly $20 in tariffs for every $100 of imported goods, and affects about 10% of the U.S. economy. That kind of tax increase could depress GDP growth by about 1.7%, which is nearly three-fourths of a normal year’s growth,” he added.
Still, Linneman noted that, unless tariffs continue to rise, the inflationary effect would likely be a one-time event that adds slightly more than one percentage point to inflation.
**Commercial Real Estate Insights**
When turning to commercial real estate, Linneman shared a largely optimistic view of the multifamily sector.
“In 2024, multifamily was balanced. Despite historical levels of new deliveries, all units were absorbed,” he explained. However, beginning in 2026, he expects challenges to return. High homeownership costs will push more people to remain renters longer. “Whether they like it or not, people will stay in multifamily housing longer while saving for higher down payments—closer to 20% instead of 10%—just to make owning a home more feasible,” Linneman stated. “People need to live somewhere, and there’s still a significant single-family housing shortage that won’t resolve anytime soon.”
In the retail sector, Linneman is equally confident: “I like retail locations where people actually want to shop. The economy has potential to grow, but much depends on how tariffs play out.”
On the office front, there was a more cautious tone. According to The Linneman Letter, 17 out of 44 major office markets are showing slow signs of recovery. “Both rent and occupancy rates are inching up, but progress is modest. Institutional investors are tiptoeing back into the office space, but uncertainty still looms,” he said.
**Advice for Investors**
Linneman offered clear, pragmatic advice for the webcast’s audience, many of whom were attendees of the YPO event.
“Unless your strategy is to flip, now is still a good time to buy—but be prepared for things to go off-plan. Keep your leverage low,” he advised.
He emphasized sticking to the fundamentals. “Make your buy, sell, or build decisions based on data, not fear. Block out the panic. Despite negative headlines, employment held strong in Q1, unemployment claims were favorable last week, and inflation is trending down.”
**Watch and Learn**
Replays of this insightful webcast are available on Walker Webcast’s YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts channels. Listeners are encouraged to subscribe to gain access to future episodes, replays, and industry insights delivered weekly.
