The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) has released an updated baseline forecast at its 2025 Commercial/Multifamily Finance Convention and Expo in San Diego, predicting a rise in total commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending to $583 billion by 2025. This represents a significant increase of 16% from the estimated total of $503 billion in 2024.
In addition, MBA expects multifamily lending alone to reach $361 billion by 2025, also showing a year-over-year increase of 16%. Looking ahead to the following year, originations are projected to continue rising with an expected total commercial real estate lending volume of $709 billion in 2026. Of this amount, it is anticipated that multifamily lending will make up approximately $419 billion.
According to Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and chief economist: “While there are still challenges facing the commercial real estate industry, there are also indications that things may be stabilizing.” He further notes that based on recent origination activity towards the end of last year: “It appears that some borrowers and lenders are ready to take action.”
