Maclaire Bolton-Smith: Expert Insights on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center has released its forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, and it is not looking favorable. According to experts, there is an 85% chance of an above-normal season from June 1 through November 30. This could result in up to 25 named storms, with four to seven classified as major hurricanes.
CoreLogic’s Vice President of Hazard & Risk Management Maclaire Bolton-Smith warns that these predictions should not be taken lightly. With near-record sea surface temperatures and a potential shift towards La Niña conditions during peak months, all the ingredients are present for an active hurricane season.
While climate predictions can be unpredictable at times, CoreLogic’s recently published “Hurricane Risk Report:2024” emphasizes the need for preparation among commercial real estate (CRE) and property owners alike. The report states that underestimating natural catastrophes can lead to financial instability when insurance payouts exceed premiums collected.
To help mitigate risk in Florida specifically, CoreLogic has developed tools such as Hurricane Wind and Coastal Storm Surge Risk Scores along with their newer Wind Resiliency Score which takes into account a building’s characteristics such as size, age construction type,and usage standards when assessing wind damage resilience on a scale of one hundred at individual property levels.
Although this report focuses primarily on Florida homes,the projected ground-up damage caused by wind/storms also extends beyond state lines into Houston,Texas,and New York City.The potential cost resulting from severe weather events like hurricanes cannot be ignored.In fact,in2005 alone,hurricanes Katrina,Wilma,Rita,Dennis,and Ophelia resulted in nearly $160 billion worth of damages combined if repeated today would have similar results according to Corelogic’s findings.
Preparation is key when it comes to mitigating the potential damage and loss of life caused by active hurricane seasons. Bolton-Smith stresses the importance of utilizing advanced technology and available data from NOAA, National Hurricane Center,and other meteorological organizations to provide early warnings for community-impacting storms. This allows homeowners and insurers crucial time to prepare or evacuate if necessary.
However, preparation should not be limited to just when a storm is approaching. Municipalities should increase public awareness, update emergency plans,and ensure they have adequate supplies/resources in place beforehand.Property owners must also review insurance policies,provide sufficient coverage,reinforce/protect buildings,and consider reinforcing windows/doors with plywood as additional precautions.
Bolton-Smith concludes that knowledge is power when it comes to mitigating risk during hurricane season.”If you know your risk,you can accelerate your recovery,”she adds.This serves as a reminder for all stakeholders involved in CRE,to take proactive measures now before it’s too late.The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season may seem far away,but being prepared ahead of time could make all the difference in minimizing potential damages/costs associated with these natural disasters.
