Summer travel demand is proving resilient even as consumers face higher energy costs, according to new data and commentary focused on the 2026 vacation season and the U.S. hospitality market. A recent Bank of America Institute “Summer Travel 2026” outlook found that many households still intend to travel despite elevated oil and gasoline prices, with 30% of surveyed consumers indicating that higher fuel costs will not alter their summer plans.
The same outlook underscores a pronounced divergence in travel behavior by income level, describing a “K”-shaped pattern. Higher-income travelers are more likely to follow through on vacation plans, while lower-income households are disproportionately opting not to travel at all. This bifurcation is shaping lodging demand in different ways across hotel chain scales and price points.
Marcus & Millichap Senior Vice President John Chang highlighted these nuances in a recently released video addressing inflation, energy prices and the hospitality outlook. He emphasized that the pressures from higher costs are not evenly distributed across the sector. Instead, much of the softness is concentrated in the limited-service and economy segments, where occupancy rates have been trending lower for several years and have shown the greatest post-pandemic performance weakening.
By contrast, Chang noted that demand for select-service hotels has held relatively steady since 2022, and full-service properties have seen rising demand over the same period. When viewed across the entire industry, the total number of hotel room nights sold has remained broadly stable since 2023, suggesting that the headline travel narrative masks important differences by chain scale and customer profile.
On the supply side, Chang pointed to a slowdown in hotel construction as another supportive factor for existing assets. With fewer new rooms entering the pipeline, current operators face less incremental competition, which can help sustain occupancy and pricing even in a slower growth environment.
From an investment perspective, Chang reported that hotel property sales have increased by about 19% from the 2024 cyclical trough, bringing transaction velocity back in line with 2016 levels. He added that pricing has been relatively steady since 2023, with an average valuation around $113,000 per key and cap rates near 8.7%. These metrics indicate that, while the sector is not in a breakout phase, bid and pricing levels have found a degree of equilibrium.
Chang characterized the near-term outlook for hospitality investors as cautiously positive and steady. The 2026 summer season is unlikely to deliver outsized gains at the aggregate level, but modest growth in higher-tier full-service segments, combined with stable transaction pricing and slower new construction, is supporting a more balanced risk-reward profile for investors focused on the hotel space.
