**Fitch Sees “Deteriorating” 2026 Outlook for CMBS, Other Structured Finance Sectors**
Fitch Ratings has released its 2026 asset performance outlook for North American structured finance sectors, projecting a challenging year ahead—particularly for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). According to the credit rating agency, about half of the structured finance sectors are expected to experience deteriorating asset performance, with CMBS identified as the most at risk.
Fitch has assigned a Negative Rating Outlook to 21% of its rated CMBS. “We expect CMBS asset performance across office, hotel, and retail segments to deteriorate in 2026,” Fitch stated. The agency attributes this decline to a confluence of factors: peaking office delinquencies, waning consumer confidence and spending, softening demand, and rising capital expenditures and operating costs.
Despite the broader negative trend, certain pockets of the market are expected to remain relatively stable. Industrial CMBS performance is likely to be supported by easing supply and recovering demand. In addition, data center-backed assets are forecasted to maintain stable performance through the year.
Beyond CMBS, Fitch cited macroeconomic challenges as key contributors to the expected downturn in structured finance sectors. “Persistent labor market and cost-of-living pressures, amid trade policy and tariff uncertainty, will drive asset performance deterioration,” the agency said. Prime sectors may come under pressure, while lower-income and non-prime borrowers are expected to remain particularly vulnerable.
For the remaining structured finance sectors, Fitch’s outlook is classified as “neutral,” reflecting a more stable but still cautious stance on performance in 2026.
