**Sector Hot Spots Emerge for CMBS Default Risk in 2026**
Top-line CMBS delinquency rates rose throughout 2025 and are expected to remain within a steady range in 2026, according to Trepp. Despite a stable level of new issuance balancing out growing volumes of delinquent loans, market stress remains evident. The overall CMBS delinquency rate ended 2025 at 7.30%, with the office sector continuing to bear the greatest burden. Office property delinquencies peaked at a historic high of 11.76% before ending the year slightly lower at 11.31%. Multifamily loan delinquencies also ticked upward, closing the year at 6.64%.
Looking ahead to 2026, Trepp has identified several areas of concern across property types. In the office sector, 345 loans totaling $13.72 billion are scheduled to mature by the end of the year. Particularly worrisome are the $2.38 billion in loans with debt service coverage ratios (DSCR) at or below 1.09x, which may pose significant challenges for refinancing.
In the retail space, the $119.81 billion pool of CMBS loans shows an overall delinquency rate of 7.06%, but that figure jumps to 11.2% for loans backed by mall properties, highlighting continued struggles in that sub-sector.
The hotel sector also shows signs of vulnerability. Among the $18.7 billion in hotel CMBS loans maturing this year, nearly 70% are floating-rate. Additionally, $5.71 billion in fixed-rate loans carry interest rates under 6% and may face significant refinancing hurdles given the currently higher market rates.
“With maturity defaults still dominating new delinquencies and elevated maturities extending through 2026 and 2027, stress is likely to remain uneven and concentrated in weaker assets, particularly in office,” Trepp reported.
*Pictured: The Mall at Partridge Creek in Clinton Township, MI—part of the collateral package for a $606.6 million mortgage currently in foreclosure.*
