**Consumer Sentiment Index Falls for Fourth Consecutive Month**
Consumer sentiment has dropped for the fourth straight month, declining 11% from March to a reading of 50.8, according to the University of Michigan’s latest index. The decline marks a continued slide that has seen sentiment fall more than 30% since December 2024.
Joanne Hsu, Director of Surveys of Consumers at the University of Michigan, attributed the downward trend to escalating concerns related to the ongoing trade war. “Sentiment has now lost more than 30% since December 2024 amid growing worries about trade war developments that have oscillated over the course of the year,” she noted.
The survey also highlighted multiple warning signs that increase the risk of a potential recession. Deteriorating expectations were recorded across various economic categories, including business conditions, personal finances, income levels, inflation, and the labor market.
Notably, the percentage of consumers who expect unemployment to rise in the coming year has grown for five consecutive months, reaching its highest point since 2009.
Year-ahead inflation expectations also surged to 6.7% in April, up from 5.0% the previous month. This marks the highest inflation expectation since 1981 and represents the fourth month in a row in which inflation expectations have jumped by 0.5 percentage points or more—described by the report as an “unusually large” increase.
