The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) has updated its baseline forecast for total commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending. It is now projected to reach $539 billion by the end of 2024, a 26% increase from the previous year’s total of $429 billion. This new projection is slightly lower than MBA’s initial estimate of $576 billion at the beginning of 2024.
In particular, multifamily lending is expected to see a significant rise this year, reaching $297 billion compared to last year’s estimate of $246 billion. Looking ahead to next year, MBA anticipates that both commercial real estate lending as a whole and multifamily specifically will continue to increase, with projections set at $665 billion in total volume and $390 billion for multifamily alone. However, these latest forecasts are slightly lower than what was predicted earlier this year.
According to Jamie Woodwell, head of commercial real estate research at MBA: “The recent decline in interest rates combined with many loans maturing soon should lead to an uptick in mortgage borrowing after two years of relatively low levels.” The exact timing will depend on how quickly property owners take advantage
