According to a recent CNBC report, the latest CNBC Fed Survey presents both positive and negative outlooks. On the bright side, experts are increasingly confident that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession and achieve a smooth landing. However, there is also potential for less easing by the Federal Reserve as officials may forecast fewer rate cuts in 2024 compared to their previous predictions in December.
The central bank’s two-day meeting this week is expected to result in no change to its current federal funds target rate range of 5.25% – 5.5%. In response to the survey findings, John Donaldson from Haverford Trust Company stated that “the narrative of an ultra-low interest rate-dependent economy has been debunked.”
In March’s survey, it was found that there is now a 52% chance of achieving a soft landing – up from January’s figure of 47%, marking its first time above half since being introduced last July. Additionally, there has been decreased concern about an upcoming recession with only a probability of 32%, which is significantly lower than January (39%) and November (63%).
Overall, while risks have lowered for an economic downturn according to this CNBC survey results; expectations for future Fed actions have also diminished.
