According to the February 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, consumer confidence in the Federal Reserve’s ability to meet its 2% inflation target is low. The survey, which polled 1,300 household heads across the nation, revealed that median inflation expectations for the next year remained at a steady rate of 3.0%, but increased to 2.7% from previous years at both three and five-year horizons.
Despite this lack of confidence in short-term inflation rates, there are some positive signs as consumer expectations for key indicators have moderated. Gas prices are expected to increase by only a slight margin while medical care costs have decreased significantly since September 2020 and college education costs remain stable.
However, despite recent job growth with an addition of over quarter million positions in February alone according to national reports; unemployment remains a concern among consumers surveyed by SCE. The perceived likelihood of losing one’s job within a year has risen along with voluntary job changes within that same time frame.
