**2026 Forecast Predicts 16% Rise in Commercial Real Estate Investment Activity**
Annual U.S. GDP growth is projected to decelerate to 2.0% in 2026, according to CBRE’s latest outlook, with the labor market expected to soften and inflation forecast to average a slightly lower 2.5%. Despite these economic headwinds, commercial real estate (CRE) investment is set to rebound significantly, increasing by 16% to reach a projected $562 billion in 2026. This marks a return to near pre-pandemic investment levels.
CBRE’s U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook 2026 highlights the shift to income-driven total returns across the sector. The report emphasizes that asset selection and quality management will become increasingly critical in driving performance. Cap rates for most property types are anticipated to compress by five to 15 basis points during the year.
CRE leasing activity, which hit a low in 2024, is expected to continue recovering through 2026. However, the pace and success of this recovery will vary by sector, market, and asset class. In the office and industrial sectors, the report anticipates a continued “flight to quality,” with newer, higher-quality buildings outperforming older assets.
The report also provides insights into sector-specific outlooks and includes deep dives into 16 key local markets across the United States.
