The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) has released an updated baseline forecast predicting a 29% increase in total commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending by 2024, reaching $576 billion. This is a significant rise from the estimated total of $444 billion in 2023.
Multifamily lending is expected to see the largest growth, with an anticipated increase to $339 billion this year – up by 25% from last year’s estimate of $271 billion. The overall commercial real estate market is also projected to experience growth next year, with a total lending volume of $717 billion. Of that amount, multifamily lending will account for approximately $404 billion.
According to Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s head of commercial real estate research: “The slowest year for commercial real estate borrowing and lending in roughly a decade was likely seen in 2023.” However, as markets reset on various factors such as interest rates and property values – there should be some marginal improvement leading into the following years. Despite being higher than previous years’ levels, it is still expected that loan volumes will remain below those seen since at least back until 2017.
This forecast highlights promising prospects for increased activity within the CRE industry over the coming years.
